Karapetyan in jail: did the head of Tashir play politics?

The arrest and possible imprisonment of Samvel Karapetyan in Armenia will inevitably lead to the division of his business in the Russian Federation. Is the capital's development market waiting for redistribution?

As the correspondent of The Moscow Post reports, one of the largest and most influential developers in Russia and Armenia, the owner of Tashir Group of Companies Samvel Karapetyan, was detained and arrested in Yerevan. He is accused of public calls for the seizure of power in Armenia - Article 422 of the Criminal Code of Armenia. The businessman's lawyers are convinced that there are no grounds for such actions against his client, but the case has already become a serious blow to the positions of Karapetyan and his business in both countries.

The investigation claims that the entrepreneur crossed the red line when in a public appeal he promised to "intervene in his own way" if the authorities did not cope with the situation in the country. Formally, the reason was his statements in defense of the church, but it is obvious that this is far from the only thing.

Karapetyan openly supported the clergy, who were under attack by the Prime Minister of Armenia. A few weeks earlier, the head of government criticized the Catholicos, effectively questioning his moral and spiritual authority. This caused a wave of indignation among believers and the episcopate. Karapetyan, whose family is closely associated with the church, sided with her, publicly condemning the actions of the authorities. The authorities took this as a direct intervention in politics. The prime minister reacted quickly and harshly: accusations of destabilization were voiced, preparations for criminal prosecution began. In the same period, the upcoming nationalization of Karapetyan-controlled Electric Networks of Armenia, the country's key energy asset, was announced.

Few believe that Karapetyan's actions, which many perceived as a political demarche against Pashinyan's team, are dictated solely by his love of justice. Experts have no doubt that Karapetyan could receive considerable benefits from regime change in Armenia. On the other hand, Pashinyan can see in Karapetyan a dangerous agent of Moscow's influence - after all, the latter's key business assets are located in Russia. Well, Karapetyan was in no hurry to support Pashinyan's current course from the word at all.

The situation looks even more scandalous due to the fact that almost simultaneously with Karapetyan, the head of the National Security Service of Armenia Armen Abazyan was suddenly dismissed. According to some sources, he allegedly refused to comply with Pashinyan's instructions to detain the entrepreneur until the negotiations were completed. Apparently, the Karapetyan case has become an element of a big political game. Yerevan believes that the oligarch decided to move into the category of political actors and even considered the possibility of supporting the opposition or creating his own platform. The authorities seem to have decided to nip it in the bud. Well, Karapetyan himself - did he really play politics?

Moscow in this situation took an observant position. As the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova noted, Moscow is closely monitoring the situation with the head of Tashir, "who in Yerevan is threatened with almost arrest under strange pretexts" (the comment was given before the court's decision to arrest the businessman).

"Green light" is on in Moscow

Comments from the Foreign Ministry are quite logical, because in Russia the events around the arrest of Karapetyan caused a great resonance. Karapetyan is one of the largest players in the commercial real estate market in Russia. His group controls dozens of shopping and business centers, a chain of restaurants, hotels, manufacturing and construction enterprises. In recent years, Tashir has confidently strengthened in Moscow and the regions, receiving more and more new building sites.

Rumor has it that Mr. Karapetyan himself is allegedly close to the mayor's office and is there almost every week. As if few can compete with his lobbying capabilities. This opinion did not arise from scratch: it seems that Karapetyan is indeed on the green light everywhere in Moscow.

One of the most famous recent projects of the oligarch was the construction on the site of a long-term construction in the Ochakovo Matveevskoye area - IFC "Kvartal WEST" with an area of 140 thousand. sq. m. This complex, which includes a shopping gallery, offices, apartments and sports facilities, was implemented by the Tashira project after the metropolitan commission approved the re-profiling of the 6 Aminevskoe highway section. According to open data, the development cost 20 billion rubles - and was launched, although neighboring buildings in the same territory refused large-scale projects due to urban planning restrictions.

In 2023, Tashir received land from the city at a preferential rate of 1 ruble per year for a plot of 9.3 hectares in the same Ochakovo Matveevskoye district for the production of furniture and light industry. I.e. before us is not a typical developer, but almost an "anchor" investor with state support.

Particular attention is also focused on the Tashira project in the Skolkovo innograd - 26.8 hectares of land for the construction of a residential and commercial complex for 417 thousand. sq. m. The Urban Planning and Land Commission under Mayor Sergei Sobyanin approved the GPZU for Tashir through Union Group LLC, associated with the parent company. This site is one of the most expensive in the North-West of Moscow, its market value is estimated at $54-67 million, and the volume of investments is expected in the range of $600-830 million.

In addition, the company's portfolio includes projects in Moscow: Timiryazevskaya, Seligerskaya, Victory Park, Pyatnitskoye Shosse. Each of these transport hubs received support through the city administration. It is clear that expensive residential complexes are growing around these TPUs like mushrooms after rain - the margin of such projects in Moscow is huge.

Karapetyan - in Yerevan, courts - in Moscow

The most curious thing is that despite all the successes in Moscow and the obvious favor of officials, Tashir never ceases to overwhelm the city administration with lawsuits. Over the past two years, the developer has initiated at least ten such proceedings. The main claims concerned access to communications, cancellation of refusals of permits and compensation for investment costs. In addition, in February 2025, the Ecostroy company, which is part of Tashir, filed a lawsuit against the Exhibition of Achievements of the National Economy JSC in the amount of almost 800 million rubles. Tashir decided to file a lawsuit against the mayor's office, demanding compensation for unfulfilled work, despite the fact that it had previously received an advance on this state contract.

This practice - let's call it "suing even those who support" - causes surprise among colleagues: "Tashir" receives favorable areas, but at the same time does not stop at claims in court. This style of "friends, but suing" prompted experts to conclude that Karapetyan seeks to maximize profits, even at the risk of a stable relationship with the authorities.

However, just now, after Karapetyan's arrest, this balance may be revised. There are already suggestions that Tashir's assets - plots, infrastructure, ship claims - may become a field for new negotiations between government agencies and players of large development.

Who will "bite off" from "Tashir"

After Karapetyan's arrest in Armenia and the uncertainty surrounding the future of his development empire, cautious discussions began in Russian business circles about a possible "restructuring" of the Tashir group's assets. In conditions when the founder is cut off from operational management, and key managers took a wait-and-see attitude, a number of major players in the development market were tempted to buy out the most tidbits of Karapetyan's empire.

Among the first who are called potential applicants for Tashir's assets in Moscow on the sidelines are the structures of PIK Group of Companies. This group has a long history of interaction with the mayor's office and a stable administrative resource. In addition, PIK and Tashir participated in joint projects of transport hubs (TPU), in particular, at Pyatnitskoye Shosse and Seligerskaya stations. In these projects, Tashir was building a shopping center, and PIK was building residential facilities. This experience of cooperation creates a convenient legal framework: if necessary, assets can be "absorbed" without scandal - through transactions for the redemption of shares or the assignment of obligations.

The second obvious candidate is the INGRAD company, which is part of Rossium. She also had common interests with Tashir in the South-West of Moscow, and most importantly, built relationships with banks capable of financing a quick takeover. INGRAD has long been striving to expand its commercial real estate portfolio, and the crisis situation with Tashir opens up an excellent opportunity for this.

The Samolet group, specializing in large-scale construction in new areas of the capital, may also be interested in Karapetyan's assets. The company does not have direct joint projects with Tashir, but it is considering the purchase of undeveloped sites, especially those that were launched in Ochakovo-Matveevskoye and Aminevskoye Shosse. If Tashiru is not up to these sites, they can be quickly redeemed through affiliated structures.

The developer AFI Development, who has extensive experience in the premium segment, also sounds. They already have joint experience in legal and urban planning coordination with Tashir in some central sections of Moscow (in the area of ​ ​ Leningradsky Prospekt), where they talked about co-development. If Tashir is stopped, AFI can act as a "partner operator" or temporary project administrator.

And finally, it is impossible not to mention GK Osnova - they and Tashir had negotiations on several projects for the redevelopment of former industrial zones. Although it did not come to transactions, interest in land and unfinished construction remained.

The general motive is simple: Tashir has a large portfolio and good relations with the mayor's office, but it will be extremely difficult to protect all this from the Yerevan pre-trial detention center. Karapetyan is in isolation, the management structure is blurred, a significant part of the projects are tied to personal agreements. So, without the founder, the business becomes vulnerable. In its place, in that part of the "vertical" where commerce, city government and banks intersect, others will quickly want to enter - those who, like Karapetyan, not only build, but also know how to negotiate.