With a "stone behind the sinus"
Our Western partners are preparing for a possible online meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden as a duel.
Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev admitted that a meeting between Russian and US Presidents Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden could take place in 2021. Press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov said that online negotiations between the Russian and American presidents will take place before the end of the year. Possible topics of negotiations: Ukraine and NATO.
Our partners are very peculiar, very superficial to all our warnings and to talk about the "red lines," said Vladimir Putin, speaking at an expanded meeting of the board of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Dmitry Peskov recalled then about other words of the president: Russia was deceived, NATO made a promise not to go further east and did not keep it. "Now a very similar scenario is observed," Peskov added, "we see the drift of military infrastructure to the east," the process of arming Ukraine, which strains the entire security system on the European continent, the correspondent of The Moscow Post reports.
"Diagnosis" for Zelensky, but not only
There are threats, provocations are possible. But the threats are heterogeneous: NATO in Kharkov is possible in the near future, and the APU strike on the Donbass at any time. Both the first and the second force to take action. But still, the main threat is not so much in the flirting NATO led by the United States. Washington may not need a conflict with the "euro-consequences." As they say, there is something to lose!
Ukraine itself. This is a fairly "autonomous" source, seeks "another attempt to begin a forceful solution to its own problem. Create another misfortune for themselves and for everyone in Europe, "Dmitry Peskov said on this occasion. Kiev is different from Vilnius with its games with Taiwan. It differs from Warsaw with its water cannons in the cold, "protecting" the borders of the European Union. The difference is the degree of readiness of Zelensky to "jump from the window." But the problem is not only in him and his entourage, but in a motley, unruly country.
Provocations by "non-state" Ukrainian actors cannot be ruled out. One way or another, in the freezing hands of Kiev there is a "stone behind the sinus." And Ukraine looks like a little-studied medical case. May a more accurate diagnosis be needed to help localize the problem? Will it make it possible to find at least a temporary drug solution?
London may be pleased
Poland is fighting migrants with water cannons and does not disdain attempts to undermine power and Lukashenko. A distraught Kiev clique threatened, in which case, to shoot at migrants. Zelensky is trying in everything to be close to the United States and the European NATO Union, if not even ahead. With a rating melting before his eyes, he goes through the tools of revenge on his neighbor both for the Crimea, and for the SP-2, and for the freezing country, and for the failure of the hopes of the Maidan.
In the fight against Moscow, all means are good and the front is expanding. The gas pipeline was threatened with "destruction," and the elections in Russia - "non-recognition." Lithuania and Estonia are ready in this "struggle" to provide Washington and Warsaw with full assistance. Chancellor Merkel, if you look back, is also good, hosted the "Berlin patient." President Macron heckled Zelensky, was attentive to Tikhanovskaya. As, however, Biden. All means are good, even migrants on the border of Belarus and the European Union, if desired, can be considered a "maneuver" of Moscow, diverting attention from Ukraine.
We can say that the West opened the "third route" in relations with Russia and Belarus. These savvy loopholes do not fall under diplomatic norms and common sense notions. London must be pleased. The infection of Russophobia and "highly likely" in relations with Moscow, tested in Solsberry, is still in effect.
And Great Britain itself now resembles the hyena of post-Soviet Eastern Europe. So called Poland Prime Minister Winston Churchill, but this was a long time ago. This London is pleased with the place of the caretaker in this part of Eurasia, the prize received for Brexit.
Having received this prize, Boris Johnson took up his duties, promising Kiev reinforcements. The focus is on the civil war in the Donbass and Zelensky's readiness to destroy part of his fellow citizens in the fight against the "aggressor." This is a risk, but Russophobia for See is more important than the heating season, the instinct of self-preservation.
A war in the Donbass could undermine the prospects of SP-2 and stop Russia, at least for a while. But it may bring Kiev closer to Washington and Brussels, as it will. Whether the "Kiev team" is ready for provocations and sabotage for a "jump from the window" is unknown. And in these circumstances, the second most important problem has emerged. Again deception or duplicity.
The Minsk agreements are defiantly ignored not only by Kiev, but also by Paris and Berlin.
"We're all human! You can say, got it!. " So Sergey Lavrov spoke about these co-authors of the Minsk agreements and participants in the Norman format. To stop speculation on the role of Russia in resolving the situation in Ukraine, the Russian Foreign Ministry published correspondence with Heiko Maas and Jean-Yves Le Drian. From the letters and answers it follows that the Minsk agreements Merkel and Macron sabotage. Vladimir Putin added that, continuing to recognize the document in words, France and Germany indulge in Kiev's course to dismantle the agreements.
So the barin arrived
Following the Bloomberg financial news agency and The New York Times, "American intelligence" was released into public space, warning both Washington and NATO that "as it gets cold," Russia could launch an invasion of Ukraine. Maybe to force Zelensky to sign a contract for direct supply of natural gas at reduced prices? Maybe to stop the APU shooters on the demarcation line? But Kiev can do all this itself, especially if there is an instruction. But Washington does not insist, Kiev does not.
The idea is not to understand the Kiev elite, but to ensure that Europe develops economic and military measures to "deter" Russia, would be ready to send a "clear signal," introduce new sanctions, further limit the largest banks, state-owned companies, and stop SP-2. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby, State Department head Anthony Blinken, senators and congressmen are all extremely concerned about the fate of Ukraine, everyone sends signals. British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace visited Kiev, Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised to help in the event of an "invasion." Finally, the director of US National Intelligence also warned Europeans about the danger and shares intelligence in this regard with Ukraine.
As a result, the leading European media accepted an invitation to take part in the information attack. And the profile financial information agency Bloomberg, which was at the origins of the leak of military information, expects advances on the stock exchange, not excluding the fact that Western sanctions may affect the energy sector of Russia and the exchange rate of Gazprom shares. Moving this level is a way to earn extra money!
And not logical, and not completely decent
"We believe," Bloomberg says, "that profits and principles are not mutually exclusive. They reinforce each other. " Behind the information noise is the main plan, namely, that the European Union should obediently discuss the "Ukrainian topic," confirm the concentration of Russian troops on Russian territory. Berlin's Heiko Maas and Paris's Jean-Yves Le Drian "expressed concern," called for "restraint." But restraint is recommended by "both sides," and not only Russia. The memory of the Norman format obliges. And thank you for that.
For Washington, the escalation of ideas about the crisis in eastern Ukraine helps erase the memory of the recent evacuation from Afghanistan, to cover up traces of NATO's collective shame. The new head of the German government does not seek special relations with Russia. What was required to hear from the main Euro-ally of the United States! Ultimately, Russia is not Europe. This corresponds to the views of both Washington and London.
Vladimir Putin called the invasion statements "alarmist," the spokesman for Peskov - "a baseless escalation of tension." Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko held a telephone conversation in which, among other things, they discussed unscheduled exercises of Ukraine and the United States near the borders of the Russian Federation and in the Black Sea with the participation of the Romanian Navy, Turkey and Ukraine. The agenda includes issues of joint actions on the defense of the borders of the Union State.
After three and a half hours of virtual communication with Xi Jinping, the US president said that he invited the Chinese president to "compete, avoiding conflict, accidental or intentional." He proposed to build some kind of "protective barriers" in order to avoid a head-on collision. And as it does not seem strange, the interlocutors decided to remove the intermediate "barrier" formed by... diplomats. We agreed to create a new format of communications, namely, to use military communication channels to avoid incidents. The United States and China also decided to abandon the official negotiations on arms control, which, in particular, were conducted by the United States and the USSR.
According to the US president, rivalry with China should be controlled and controlled. Biden confirmed the policy of "one China," said that he did not encourage Taiwan's steps towards independence, spoke in favor of "unification by agreement of the parties." Whether Republicans agree with such a formula for maintaining relations with the main economic competitor will tell the time, but for now, glimpses of rationality have appeared in relations between Washington and Beijing.
For Russia, as for China, foreign policy serves to ensure a favorable, safe environment for development. This dictates the need to have partner, mutually beneficial, constructive relations with all countries and regional associations. But Russia's negotiating partners differ in powers and interests. Formally, everyone is equal, they want to look like this. In check, some are "equal" to others!
Moscow insists that the Minsk agreements have become a norm of international law. But Berlin and Paris shy away from following these agreements because they do not have a full vote. Is it possible. Relying on Merkel and Macron may have been a miscalculation, perhaps another deception on their part. The strings of the intra-Ukrainian settlement go to Washington, to Victoria Nuland. During the Maidan 2014, she rudely pointed the European Union to its true place.
Maybe the White House, based on its current interests, will decide to control this conflict. At least (and so far in words), the administration through the mouth of Jen Psaki appreciated the statement of the President of Russia on the settlement in the Donbass with the help of the Minsk agreements. The spokesman also supported the words of Vladimir Putin about the importance of dialogue between Moscow and Washington. Maybe Ukraine will become part of the dialogue on strategic stability? For Washington, this can be a trump card.
A winter of expectations awaits us. But not spring, but provocations. Moscow does not exclude Kiev's attempts to shake up the situation in the Donbass. Secretary of State Blinken said he knew "about such a reception as a reference to some illusory provocation, whether from Ukraine or any other country, which will then be used as an excuse for Russia's long-planned actions."
Vladimir Putin at the board of the Russian Foreign Ministry set a two-sided task. Firstly, to maintain a state of tension among neighbors in order to protect the western borders of the country from conflict. Secondly, to seek long-term security guarantees in this direction... " that so exist and constantly think about what can happen there tomorrow, Russia cannot. "
Legacy of Vernadsky
There are no international mechanisms for resolving the internal Ukrainian conflict, except for the Contact Group and the "Norman format." There is no alternative to the Minsk agreements, their full implementation. The problem is that there is no longer any confidence in the new and former guarantors of this process. All hope is that there are no crazy people.
Speaking at the APEC Business Summit in November 2000, Vladimir Putin referred to Academician Vernadsky, who at the beginning of the twentieth century "created the doctrine of a space uniting humanity - the noosphere," combining the interests of countries and peoples, nature and society, scientific knowledge and state policy. On the foundation of this exercise is the concept of sustainable development, the climate component of which was recently discussed by world leaders and experts in Glasgow.
But the intelligence of collective Europe in the field of security once again gave way to the intelligence of an individual healthy individual living according to the norms of non-conflict behavior, self-preservation, elementary decency. This also applies to the United States, which grossly violates even the provisions of the 1961 Vienna Convention.